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| (photo credit: theinsideword.com) |
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
After their 26-6 Wild Card victory over the Detroit Lions in Seattle last week, the Seahawks (10-5-1) travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons (11-5) at 4:35 pm ET Saturday afternoon on Fox.
Seattle won the NFC West division handily, relying on their top five defense in points allowed and yards allowed, and an offense that depended on its passing game more than it ever had before in the Russell Wilson era. The Seahawks were able to maintain their high level of play on defense despite the loss of safety Earl Thomas, one of their main leaders and most physical presences.
The offense managed middle-of-the-league production through a couple extenuating circumstances: quarterback Russell Wilson suffered a leg injury early in the season, causing him to the fewest rushing yards of his career by a wide margin. His lack of mobility resulted in the most completions, attempts and passing yards of his career (though also coupled with the lowest QBR of his career).
It wasn't just his own lack of rushing production that created a reliance on the passing game; the running back corps had its own adventures this season. At present, the Seahawks leading rusher this season, Christine Michael, is currently leading the rushing attack for the Green Bay Packers. Second is Thomas Rawls, who missed eight games during the regular season and whose 162 yards last week against Detroit was more than he earned in six of his regular season games, combined. Beyond that, rookie Alex Collins carried the ball 31 times all season, and C.J. Prosise fractured his scapula and is questionable for this weekend. Additionally, number two receiver Tyler Lockett broke his fibula and tibia in Week 16 and is out indefinitely.
Atlanta held off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South, and used arguable the best offense in the league to do it. The Falcons led the league in scoring by almost five points per game, had the second-most total yards and passing yards (behind the New Orleans Saints in both), and were also fifth in rushing yards. Quarterback Matt Ryan is an MVP-candidate, finishing second in yards and touchdowns, and leading in touchdown percentage, average yards per attempt, average yards per completion, and rating. (Each of those six categories was a career high.)
On the receiving end of Ryan's production, Julio Jones had average production in receptions (83) and touchdowns (6), but finished second in yards (1,409 to T.Y. Hilton's 1,448) and had the highest yards per catch among receivers with at least 60 receptions (17.0; Hilton was second with 15.9). The rest of the receiving corps spread the wealth, with Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel both finishing with over 550 yards. Additionally, seven other players finished with over 200 receiving yards. Running back Devonta Freeman led the ground attack with 1,079 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tevin Coleman contributed 520 yards and eight touchdowns of his own.
In their matchup earlier this season, Seattle edged out Atlanta 26-24 in Seattle on a missed pass interference call that prevented Jones from coming down with a long catch at the end of the game.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
On the heels of their 27-14 victory over the Oakland Raiders, the Houston Texans head northeast to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Saturday evening at 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
Houston (9-7) clawed their way to the AFC South title despite having the fourth-worst offense in the entire league. The Texans were one of three playoff teams (and the only division winner) to have a negative point differential during the regular season. The other two teams, the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions, experienced quick exits last week. One could easily argue if the Oakland Raiders still had a healthy Derek Carr at quarterback, last week's result would have swung heavily in Oakland's favor.
As is, Houston boasts the leagues best defense, limiting their opponents to the fewest yards in the league. It boasts big names and top performers on the defensive line (Jadeveon Clowney, Vince Wilfork), the linebacking corps (Brian Cushing, Whitney Mercilus, Benardrick McKinney) and the defensive backfield (Kareem Jackson, A.J. Bouye, Jonathan Joseph, Quintin Demps).
All of this without possibly the best defensive player in the league, end J.J. Watt, who has been out since Week 4 after back surgery. Offensively, the struggles start with quarterback Brock Osweiler, who in his first full season as a starter finished with more interceptions (16) than touchdowns (15), and was at or near the bottom of the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and quarterback rating. Their saving grace was being 8th in the league in rushing yards (led by Lamar Miller's 1,073) and middle of the pack in turnovers.
New England (14-2) earned the overall number one seed in the AFC, winning the East division with ease even though they were without quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games. Upon his return, Brady became the league's leading Most Valuable Player candidate. His 28 touchdowns and two interceptions place him amongst the all-time leaders in that ratio, and the team was 11-1 with him at the helm. As the third-highest scoring offense in the league, and giving up the fewest points, New England finished with a +191 point differential. The next largest differential was the +134 Falcons. (For context, the Cleveland Browns were -188, so the Patriots were better than the Browns were terrible.)
In their meeting earlier this season, New England dominated Houston from start to finish, 27-0. In that game, the Texans had a healthy Watt, and Tom Brady had not yet started his season. With all that in mind, New England is favored by 16 points this weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
With their 30-12 victory over the Miami Dolphins last weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel west to take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Pittsburgh (11-5) used their bevy of B's (quarterback "Big Ben" Roethlisberger; running back Bell, Le'Veon; receiver Brown, Antonio) to propel them through the regular season. After four straight losses dropped them to 4-5, the Steelers ran off seven straight wins to get on a momentous roll heading into the playoffs. Roethlisberger had any stellar year, totaling over 3,800 yards and 29 touchdowns.
Bell missed the first four games of the season but still managed over 1800 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns in just 12 games. Antonio Brown had another great season at the top of the receiving world, totaling 106 receptions (second in the league), 1,284 yards (fifth) and 12 touchdowns (second). Odell Beckham was the only other receiver to be in the top five in all three categories.
Without a ton of production from the rest of the offense, and a defense that ranked right around the middle of the league across the board, the Steelers ended up in seven different games that had a one-score difference (8 points or less), though they did go 5-2 in those games.
Kansas City (12-4) relied on a strong defense and an opportune offense and special teams to finish the season as AFC West champions. Even though they finished in the bottom third of the league in yards allowed, they finished 7th in points allowed on the strength of leading the league in fumbles recovered (15), interceptions (18), and thus total takeaways.
Offensively, quarterback Alex Smith had another rock-solid year. He completed 67 perecent of his passes for a career-high 3,502 yards. His 15 touchdowns is low for a full-time starter, but so are his eight interceptions. His leading receiver was tight end Travis Kelce, who had the most yards (1,125) and second-most receptions (85) amongst all tight ends in the league. Tyreek Hill, Jeremy Maclin, and Chris Conley all had over 500 receiving yards, showing how well Kansas City can spread the ball around. Hill was a firecracker for the Chiefs, particularly as the year went on. His spark from almost any position on the field (wide receiver, slot receiver, H-back, punt and kick returner) caused trouble for defenses left and right. He finished with 12 total touchdowns, including eight in the last six weeks of the season.
In their meeting earlier this season, Pittsburgh throttled Kansas City 43-14. That game was in Pittsburgh. The Chiefs were 6-2 at home this season; the Steelers were 5-3 on the road.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Thanks to a sound 38-13 handling of the New York Giants last weekend, the Green Bay Packers will visit Dallas to take on the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium Sunday evening at 4:40 p.m. ET on FOX.
Green Bay (10-6) earned a NFC North division title on the golden arm of Aaron Rodgers. Besides Brady (maybe even more so), no player deserves more MVP consideration than Rodgers. Amidst a roster that has seen four running backs fall by the wayside, including main threats Eddie Lacy and James Starks. The situation became so dire that the Packers had to resort to wide receiver Ty Montgomery taking on the bulk of the carries.
Seahawks transfer Christine Michael has had a slightly growing role, but not enough to allow Rodgers to hand the ball off regularly. He set career highs in pass attempts, completions, and touchdowns, and finished in the top five of the league in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interception percentage, and rating. Over the last seven games of the regular season and last week's Wild Card matchup, Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Dallas (14-2) earned the NFC East crown and number one overall seed in the NFC on the strength of the best offensive line in the league, the second best rushing attack, a steady passing game, and a hugely improved defense. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott set the record for most pass attempts to start a career without an interception, and finished with just four on the entire season.
Over 3,600 yards, 23 touchdowns, less than one percent interception rate, eight yards per attempt and 11.8 yards per completion are numbers that even seasoned veterans dream of, and he's putting them up as a second-day-of-the-draft first year. The other standout rookie, Ezekiel Elliott, arguably had an even better first year in the league. He led the league in rushing attempts and rushing yards, was second in yards from scrimmage, and third in rushing touchdowns.
The defense will be missing defensive end Randy Gregory and linebacker Rolando McClain for various offenses against the team and society, but the rest of the defensive unit appears capable of holding its own. Linebacker Sean Lee stayed healthy for the whole season and proved his worth profoundly along the way. Anthony Brown, Brandon Carr and Byron Jones all played all 16 games this season for a secondary that has been beleaguered and maligned for the past couple seasons.
In their meeting earlier this season, the Cowboys improved to 5-1 by earning their fifth victory in a row after besting the Packers in Green Bay, 30-16.
